My thoughts on current market conditions and where I think we are heading.

I've been seeing tons of post about how it's over, that we are going into a crypto winter, that we've topped, blah blah blah. I've seen posts calling for BTC to drop to 40k, ETH to 1k, ADA at 10 cents, etc. However, I am here to make a case suggesting the opposite.

BTC recently has been trading in the high 80k range, ETH just under 3k, ADA in around 35 cents and Solana around $120. With the exception of BTC, these 3 other alts are trading roughly compared to where they were at just prior to the 2024 presidential election run. It makes 0 sense for the market to continue to have noticeable further sell side pressure from here.

We saw historic levels of fear and sell side pressure in the latter part of October through November into early December, comparable to the bottom of the 2018 bear market, the COVID crash of March 2020 AND the fallout after the collapse of FTX in late 2022. I will admit that I did not think alts would be as decimated as they are, but my original thesis still stands, and that is that this has been a giant shakeout/manipulation event by smart/big money players to get weak hands out of the market.

Literally everyone was convinced we were going into a "traditional" Q4 post halving year style peak, so we saw droves of trades leveraging like crazy expecting this to happen. This was the perfect set up for huge market makers to dump these morons on their heads to obliterate the market. They also were trying to destroy Michael Saylor, but it appears that they failed. However, this leverage, along with weak retail noobs, has been completely flushed out of the market. Retail interest in this market is nonexistent, crypto right now is practically a ghost town.

In my opinion, I believe that what we've seen since early 2024, just prior to the ETF hype phase of Q1, has been a giant protracted version of 2019. In 2019, we were in an environment that until the latter part of the summer an environment of quantitative tightening. The mini bull market we had going into that summer was a BTC only rally, going from the 3k range to 14k, with alts tagging along for the ride. What we've seen in 2024 and 2025 is an environment where we were in QT and ironically enough we've seen BTC do incredibly well while alts as a collective haven't done all that much.

However, QT ended December 1st and with the recent jobs report AND low inflation it's very likely they will continue to cut rates further here in 2026. Combine this with Trump and others blatantly announcing the desire to push for stimulus, tariff rebate checks, etc. and it's obvious what direction we are going.

The clarity act is also a huge card in my opinion, and I've seen some stuff floating around that this will make it back to the floors of congress to be discussed later this month. This, along with a wave of ETF approvals for select alts, I believe will be a major catalyst comparable to what we saw in early 2024.

Those with their positions still intact and in place will do well, these last couple months would have been just about the worst time to have sold. We've also been in an range the last few weeks that is becoming increasingly tighter and tighter, so I'm expecting some sort of major move sometime soon.