If Oct 6 was the top I wanted to run some numbers on the cycle since we have a new data point.
The only two things Im looking at is the days from the cycle bottom to the top, and the halving cycle.
The bottom to the top the last three cycles
2017 —> 1068 days 2021 —> 1061 days Now 2026 —> 1068 days
And each 3 bear markets lasted exactly
2015 —> 410 days 2018 —> 363 days 2022 —> 378 days
The average is 383 days which points to a new bottom of - Oct 24 2026.
But let’s look at it from a halving perspective.
From 2016 halving ~> top was in 526 days From 2020 halving ~> top was in 548 days Now from 2024 halving ~> top was in 534 days
So how many days was the bottom to the next halving:
2015 —> 542 days 2018 —> 513 days 2022 —> 516 days
On average the bottom was 523 days before the halving.
The next halving is projected to be April 20th, 2028. Which also points to a bottom of Oct 24th 2026
The exact same day.
The bitcoin cycle has been insanely consistent
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