Signal of the week: Bitcoin’s on-chain spending dropped to its lowest level in two years. Most activity comes from recently acquired coins, while long-term holders remain largely inactive. Historically, this type of behavior is often associated with consolidation phases where strong hands hold steady and available supply remains relatively tight.
Long-term holder health quietly got worse, with LTH SOPR hovering near 2026 lows. At the same time, the market has gone still, with spending activity reaching the lowest point in two years, and the people doing most of that spending are not long-term holders. That combination suggests that Bitcoin consolidation may continue.
About the Bitcoin Impact Index
The Bitcoin Impact Index measures which groups of Bitcoin holders are under financial stress, how severe that stress is, and whether it’s severe enough to shake confidence in the market’s direction. It combines on-chain holder behaviour, ETF and derivatives activity, and exchange-level liquidity flows into a single weekly score between 0 and 100. Unlike sentiment indicators, it deliberately excludes social media and volume data to focus on what participants are doing rather than what they are saying.
Score bands:
- Normal Rotation (0–24) — routine profit-taking, no structural shift
- Elevated Repositioning (25–49) — specific groups shifting positions, pressure uneven across the market
- High Impact (50–74) — broad stress across multiple holder groups and institutional flows simultaneously
- Critical Impact (75–100) — full capitulation: LTH losses, large ETF outflows, major liquidations, and heavy exchange inflows at once
Week 25 (June 15–21): BII 50.1 — High Impact
Negative signals: long-term holders are going deeper underwater
LTH SOPR fell below 0.73, hovering next to its 2026 lows. This indicates that long-term holders who are selling are doing so at deeper losses. However, LTH accounts only for 25% of the spent volume right, and total spending continues to go down. As a result, the LTH supply which is actually being sold is relatively low.
Short-term holders also weakened, with realized P/L slightly moving down due to Bitcoin’s price decrease. Long liquidations jumped to 75% of total liquidations, though total liquidation volume at $81M daily average remains far below the extremes seen in early June.
Mixed signals: the market has gone quiet
Bitcoin’s Spent Volume dropped to its lowest level since May 2024. Part of that decline is due to lower prices, as spending naturally decreases in dollar terms when Bitcoin becomes cheaper. However, a more useful comparison is with the last time Bitcoin spent several weeks consolidating around $60,000.&
Despite trading at similar price levels, spending activity is much lower today than it was in February. This suggests that many of the investors who wanted to sell in this range may have already done so, leaving fewer sellers in the market.
The composition of spending also matters. More than half of all spent volume currently comes from coins that are less than two months old. This means most transactions are being driven by newer market participants, while experienced holders remain largely inactive. Historically, this type of behaviour has been more common during consolidation phases.
Long-term holders also added another 58,000 BTC to their wallets this week. Much of that accumulation came from wallets that have held Bitcoin for 4-5 years. Because these investors have already endured at least one cycle, their continued accumulation points to strong long-term conviction.
Negative signals: institutional flows remain negative, though easing
ETF outflows continued for a sixth consecutive week, though the pace slowed further to -$227M. The streak of outflows is still a rather bearish factor, but it is gradually moving toward positive territory. As such, considering low flows last week, the market looks like it’s waiting to see what happens next.
Stablecoin flows turned modestly positive at $37M daily average, which is a small improvement after two negative weeks. But once again, considering low values, it supports the idea that the market remains cautious, and is not ready yet for decisive moves.&
What could happen next
The most likely scenario appears to be further Bitcoin price consolidation in a narrow trading range. Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim its 20-day EMA, which keeps the door open for a retest of the 200-week SMA near $62,000 and the $60,000 level below it. At the same time, lower timeframe indicators point to a potential short-term bounce toward $65,000. If successful, $67,000 could become the next target for bulls. Such a mixed signal environment supports range-bound movement before a clearer direction emerges.
The level to watch most closely remains $62,000. A sustained break below it would test whether the “coiled spring” reading is right, or whether the deteriorating LTH SOPR is the more important signal after all.
The web content provided by CEX.IO is for educational purposes only. The information and tools provided neither are, nor should be construed as, an offer, or a solicitation of an offer, or a recommendation, to buy, sell or hold any digital asset or to open a particular account or engage in any specific investment strategy. Digital asset markets are highly volatile and can lead to loss of funds.
The availability of the products, features, and services on the CEX.IO platform is subject to jurisdictional limitations. To understand what products and services are available in your region, please see our list of supported countries and territories. This page includes additional links to information about individual products, and their accessibility.
You can get bonuses upto $100 FREE BONUS when you:
💰 Install these recommended apps:
💲 SocialGood - 100% Crypto Back on Everyday Shopping
💲 xPortal - The DeFi For The Next Billion
💲 CryptoTab Browser - Lightweight, fast, and ready to mine!
💰 Register on these recommended exchanges:
🟡 Binance🟡 Bitfinex🟡 Bitmart🟡 Bittrex🟡 Bitget
🟡 CoinEx🟡 Crypto.com🟡 Gate.io🟡 Huobi🟡 Kucoin.
Comments